This section is adapted from our previous study on the subject.
While it is notoriously difficult to draw timely and insightful conclusions from available crime statistics — and data involving migrant offenders is even more limited — the story Trump and Fox are peddling doesn’t hold up. Here’s why:
Studies show that immigrants commit crimes, including violent crimes like homicide, at lower rates than native-born Americans. Moreover, available data “indicates that a relatively small percentage of undocumented immigrants have committed crimes (excluding the fact that they are in the country without authorization)” and also suggests undocumented immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than either native-born Americans or legal immigrants. [USA Today, 3/1/24; The Washington Post, 2/29/24]
Violent crime plummeted in 2023 and the first half of 2024, continuing the downward trajectory from its recent peak under Trump’s presidency in 2020. Nearly every type of crime assessed by the FBI fell in 2023, with murder doing so “likely at one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded,” according to the crime analyst Jeff Asher. He added, “The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years.” Asher subsequently reported gathering data from 190 U.S. cities through late May and found that “in that group of cities, murder is down around 19 percent, violent crime is down 7 percent, and property crime is down over 10 percent compared to 2023.” [Substack, 12/11/23, 7/8/24]
There is no evidence of a “migrant crime wave” sweeping the country this year. In fact, amid Fox’s February spike in “migrant crime” coverage, NBC News reported that its “review of available 2024 crime data from the cities targeted by Texas’ ‘Operation Lone Star,’ which buses or flies migrants from the border to major cities in the interior — shows overall crime levels dropping in those cities that have received the most migrants.” [The New York Times, 2/18/24; NBC News, 2/29/24]
The standard Fox/Trump narrative that Biden is deliberately allowing migrants into the country for sinister purposes is wrong. Biden’s administration actually “removed a higher percentage of border crossers in his first two years than Trump did during his last two years ... despite Trump having to deal with many fewer total crossings” as David J. Bier of the libertarian Cato Institute noted — but many more migrants are trying to cross into the United States without sufficient legal avenues to do so, and operational capacity to detain and deport them is limited. Moreover, illegal migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border plunged by 54% from December to May, according to internal government data. [Media Matters, 1/25/24; CBS News, 5/23/24]
Republicans killed a bipartisan, Biden-backed bill that would have provided increased resources to build the operational capacity to detain and deport more migrants. They did so explicitly because Trump wants to use border chaos to boost his campaign and opposed the legislation — while Fox hosts helped out by lying about the legislation and attacking its GOP supporters. [Media Matters, 2/12/24, 2/6/24, 2/7/24]