Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance claimed during the October 1 CBS News debate that increased immigration — and “especially illegal immigration” — is a main driver of higher housing costs, and promised to provide “a Federal Reserve study” as evidence for his claim. The cast of Fox & Friends praised Vance the next day for supposedly providing this evidence and said his claim “makes sense,” but multiple economists pointed out that there is actually no such study, and further pointed to actual studies showing that immigration may lower housing prices.

After he was asked by CBS’ debate moderators for “evidence … that migrants are part of this problem” of high housing costs, Vance responded, “Well, there’s a Federal Reserve study that we’re happy to share after the debate,” claiming it “really drills down on the connection between increased levels of migration — especially illegal immigration — and higher housing prices.” He added: “The thing that has most turned housing into a commodity is giving it away to millions upon millions of people who have no legal right to be here.”

Vance followed the debate by posting not a Federal Reserve study, but a speech from a Trump-appointed Fed governor who is not an economist that included the following sentence: “Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents.” That speech also included a disclaimer stating: “The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.”

Vance also linked to a non-Federal Reserve study and a Congressional Budget Office report he claimed reinforced his point.

In two separate segments, Fox News’ Fox & Friends praised Vance for scapegoating immigrants over high housing costs and posting a link to the Federal Reserve “study” (actually a speech containing just one sentence to support what Vance said), with co-hosts Steve Doocy and Ainsley Earhardt claiming he “makes sense,” and co-host Lawrence Jones in particular calling to “appreciate the precision” of his false claims.

Unfortunately for Fox and Vance, economists quickly refuted his claims and his so-called evidence, explaining that at least two of the links he cited do not support his claims and pointing to other studies that show immigration lowering housing costs.

Economists refuted Vance’s baseless claims and shoddy evidence

• Yale Budget Lab economic director Ernie Tedeschi: “Actual studies find that the relationship between immigration and housing gets complex fast. As with the labor market, immigrants add to both housing demand *and* supply, and immigrant demand for housing is often not in competition in native-born demand.” Tedeschi shared more research debunking Vance’s argument, noting, “In these studies of England, Wales, & Italy, for example, the net effect of immigration was to lower housing prices.” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24, 10/1/24]
• Tedeschi: “Just from a cursory look at the data, there does not appear to be any relationship between metro areas that saw the greatest immigration during the pandemic and the greatest increase in housing prices among the native-born.” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24]
• Center for American Progress senior director of economic policy Brendan Duke: “The CBO sentence doesn’t even mention housing prices, just that state and local government spend more on housing.” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24]
• Duke: “Vance said a Fed study shows that undocumented immigrants are driving higher housing costs. Unclear what study he’s talking about. Perhaps this study about INTERNAL immigration (people moving from CA to AZ), which isn’t about undocumented immigrants?” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24]
• MEF Associates senior research associate Matt Darling responded to the Fed governor speech that Vance posted: “This is a Federal Reserve ‘offhand comment’, not a ‘Federal Reserve study.’” Darling added in a subsequent post: “The Federal Reserve puts out hundreds of studies a year. That none of them apparently support the claim Vance made in the debate is telling.” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24, 10/2/24]
• University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers responded to Vance: “Senator, you promised a ‘Federal Reserve study.’ But this is not a study, it's a speech. It provides no data, and no analysis, but simply one person's guess about what is going to happen.” Wolfers added: “The speech is not from an economist, but an attorney who previously served at FEMA and the Department of Homeland security (under Bush).” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24]
• Wolfers also called out Vance for his screenshot of the Fed governor’s speech leaving out the part where she noted that increased immigration lowered inflation. Wolfers added in a subsequent post: “Read the whole thing and you'll discover: This was not a study, it was not by economists, it's not really about immigration, it's also not about housing prices, and it does not make the point he claimed.” [Twitter/X, 10/2/24, 10/2/24]
• Wolfers pointed to a study showing that deporting undocumented immigrants led to higher housing prices. Wolfers wrote: “You were promised econ studies on the effects of immigration on house prices. So let's deliver: An important new study finds that more robust enforcement of immigration laws reduces the construction workforce, which has led to higher house prices.” [Twitter/X, 10/1/24]