IBD asserted Gore “still claims” hurricanes “are increasing in frequency”

From the November 3 IBD editorial:

The book's cover depicts one of the hurricanes Gore still claims are increasing in frequency and intensity. What has happened in the past three years is that such claims have been thoroughly debunked as the earth has cooled, possibly for decades hence.

For example, a recent study by researchers at Florida State University determined that the 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons had the least tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere in 30 years.

Ryan Maue, co-author of the report released in November 2008 on “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity,” used a measurement called accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) that combines a storm's duration and its wind speed in six-hour intervals. The years 2007 and 2008 had among the lowest ACE measurements since reliable global satellite data were first available three decades ago.

In fact, Gore has said there is “no consensus” linking global warming to hurricane frequency

Gore: "There is no consensus linking the frequency of hurricanes to global warming." As noted by science reporter Chris Mooney, Gore stated during a March 21, 2007, congressional hearing on climate change, “There is no consensus linking the frequency of hurricanes to global warming and I've never said there is -- it's the intensity of hurricanes. It's also true, the scientists say, you can't take an individual storm and say, 'This is caused by global warming.' But the odds of stronger storms are going up.”

An Inconvenient Truth: “There is less agreement among scientists” about the impact of climate change on the “number of hurricanes.” Gore noted in his 2006 book An Inconvenient Truth that "[a] growing number of new scientific studies are confirming that warmer water in the top layer of the ocean can drive more convection energy to fuel more powerful hurricanes." He added, “There is less agreement among scientists about the relationship between the total number of hurricanes each year and global warming -- because a multi-decade natural pattern has a powerful influence on hurricane frequency.” Gore further stated that “some scientists” have said that warming could lead “to an increased frequency of hurricanes.”

IBD's claim that study “debunked” climate change/hurricane intensity link undermined by study's author

Maue: Recent decrease in hurricane energy “does not contradict the recent climate change / TC linkage literature.” Ryan Maue, the Florida State University Meteorology researcher cited by IBD, stated on his website that "[u]nder global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled." Maue added, “Many papers have suggested that these changes are already occurring especially in the strongest of hurricanes due to warming sea-surface temperatures, but the methodology and data issues with each of these papers perhaps overshadows the conclusions. The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the recent climate change / TC linkage literature but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle.”

Maue reportedly “believes there's simply not enough reliable data” to determine whether climate change will increase hurricane intensity. The Houston Chronicle reported on October 31 that Maue “believes there's simply not enough reliable data to make a call either way” on the question of whether climate change will bring more intense storms.

IPCC stated that it is likely hurricanes will “become more intense.” The International Panel on Climate Change stated in its Summary for Policymakers of the Fourth Assessment Report, “Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.”