On the March 19 broadcast of 630 KHOW-AM's The Caplis & Silverman Show, co-host Dan Caplis selectively cited the results of two recent polls surveying Iraqi public opinion to support his contention that “the media is not willing to share with you good news out of Iraq the way it should be.”

After claiming that he “prefer[s] to really try to just examine facts and logic” and not “get bogged down in personal motivation,” Caplis stated that “the media is not giving you a balanced picture of Iraq.” Caplis then cited the two recent polls -- one conducted by ABC News, USA Today, the BBC, and ARD German TV; the other conducted by the British marketing firm Opinion Research Business (ORB):

CAPLIS: Go to the ABC poll, and, and, and you can find some real positives. There are some negatives, no question about it -- and no way, you know, to try to put perfume on that pig; there are some negatives. But there are a lot of positives that aren't being reported. You know, only 35 percent -- and this is according to the ABC poll, and I'm going to give you the big headline on it in a second and you're going to say, “These SOBs just lied to me.” But even under the ABC poll and methodology, only 35 percent of Iraqis favor immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops; 66 percent of Iraqis want the U.S. troops to stay for some meaningful period.

Presumably, Caplis was referring to question No. 27 of the ABC poll, which asked, “How long do you think U.S. and other coalition forces should remain in Iraq?” The poll does show that 35 percent of Iraqis believe coalition forces should "[l]eave now," and a total of 66 percent of respondents indicated those forces should remain for a period of time based on benchmarks such as “until security is restored,” “until the Iraqi government is stronger,” and “until the Iraqi security forces can operate independently.” However, Caplis omitted the responses to two previous questions: No. 25, which found that 78 percent of the respondents “oppose ... the presence of coalition in forces in Iraq”; and No. 26, which showed that 49 percent believed bringing more U.S. troops to Baghdad and Anbar province would make security “Worse” there, compared with 29 percent who believed such an escalation would make security “Better” and 22 percent who believed it would have no effect.

Also, in response to poll question No. 28 -- “Overall, do you think the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq is making security in our country better, worse, or having no effect on the security situation?” -- 69 percent of Iraqis responding to the ABC poll answered “Worse.”

Later, Caplis correctly cited the results of the ORB poll, claiming that “it said only 27 percent think the nation's involved in a civil war.” But Caplis omitted another finding of that poll -- that 22 percent of Iraqis feel they “are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one.” Moreover, despite the fact that he had just highlighted the “good news” in the ABC poll, Caplis ignored its findings regarding civil war. As the ABC survey noted, “Forty-two percent think their country is in a civil war; 24 percent more think one is likely.”

The ABC poll, “Ebbing Hope in a Landscape of Loss Marks a National Survey of Iraq,” reported that "[a] new national survey paints a devastating portrait of life in Iraq: Widespread violence, torn lives, displaced families, emotional damage, collapsing services, an ever-starker sectarian chasm -- and a draining away of the underlying optimism that once prevailed." The poll was conducted February 25-March 5, and according to ABC's “Note on Methodology”:

The survey had a contact rate of 90 percent and a cooperation rate of 62 percent for a net response rate of 56 percent. Including an estimated design effect of 1.51, the results have a margin of sampling error of 2.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The ORB poll was conducted February 10-22. According to ORB's analysis, “The standard margin of error on the sample size is +1.4%.”

From the March 19 broadcast of 630 KHOW-AM's The Caplis & Silverman Show:

CAPLIS: Boy, hard to believe really, the anniversary today -- four full years since the invasion of Iraq. So we're talking about some of those big-ticket items, including -- and really, all of these questions falling under the umbrella of the two polls just released -- one done by ABC and BBC and USA Today, and then another done by a respected British polling company. Two polls regarding what Iraqis are thinking right now about the state of affairs in Iraq, American troops -- should American troops stay or go -- those same questions that we're talking about over here. So we'll be talking about how Iraqis responded to these polls. And within that, I want to talk about media coverage of the polls, because I hope, I think you'll be convinced when I get done with my explanation of this, that, you know, the media's not shooting straight with you, and the media is not willing to share with you good news out of Iraq the way it should be. But that also, obviously, how do you feel? Do you think that we're more or less safe as a result of the invasion of Iraq? We'll talk about how Iraqis feel on that. All of that ahead.

[...]

CAPLIS: But in terms of these opinion polls, I think they're important to talk about a bit today because I think they show you pretty conclusively that the media has not been straight with you, that the media at this point, for whatever motivation -- and I prefer to really try to just examine facts and logic, et cetera, really, than get bogged down in personal motivation. So regardless of the motivation -- and I try to presume the best about the people and entities I deal with in terms of motivation -- the factual reality is the media is not giving you a balanced picture of Iraq. They're not giving you the positive; they're emphasizing the negative -- whether it's because they want America to lose in Iraq, they want Bush to suffer a terrible defeat in Iraq, they want Democrats to take the White House. Who knows. But the bottom line is they're not giving you the straight story.

And these two polls released over the last couple of days on what Iraqis think are a great example of that, because what Iraqis think does tie into what our strategy should be; it's relevant to what our strategy should be. And if you listen to our own ABC newscast, which starts with 81 percent of Iraqis think this or that, some terrible negative about the U.S. -- well, my goodness gracious. Please, go to that ABC poll -- it's online. Go to the ABC poll, and, and, and you can find some real positives. There are some negatives, no question about it -- and no way, you know, to try to put perfume on that pig; there are some negatives. But there are a lot of positives that aren't being reported. You know, only 35 percent -- and this is according to the ABC poll, and I'm going to give you the big headline on it in a second and you're going to say, “These SOBs just lied to me.” But even under the ABC poll and methodology, only 35 percent of Iraqis favor immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops; 66 percent of Iraqis want the U.S. troops to stay for some meaningful period. And then it breaks down into, you know, how long -- but, but 66 percent want the U.S. troops to stay. Beyond that, you know, a majority of Iraqis want democracy and a stronger majority believe there's going to be democracy within five years. More -- 58 percent of Iraqis polled want a single nation with the capital in Baghdad. Forty-eight percent of the Iraqis polled believe the invasion was right.

But here's the kicker: You know, all of these numbers that are bad for the U.S. and -- are, are grossly overinflated. All of the numbers that are good for the U.S. are grossly understated. Why? The Sunnis are by far most likely to hate us. Sunnis, you can see a swing in these polls between Sunni, who were in power under Saddam, and Shia, who were being repressed -- of up to 90 percent difference on some of these poll questions. The Sunnis are much more likely to despise us. The polling ABC chose to do more than doubles the representation of Sunnis in the percentage of people being polled. More than doubled -- by some accounts triples the representation of the guys who hate us in this poll. And they're still encouraging poll numbers. Then you get on to a British poll done by a very well-respected British polling company, and it said only 27 percent think the nation's involved in a civil war. By a 2-to-1 majority thinks the military operations under way right now will disarm militias. Only 26 percent preferred life under Saddam. And, and then it goes on with other positives.

So in terms of the Iraqi perception of what we're doing over there, many more positives than the media is reporting to you, even about polls they conducted themselves and even about polls where they grossly skewed [laughs] the people polled in favor of the ones who hate us. So, my goodness -- it's just, just outrageous, I think, what the media's doing with Iraq. But we'll come back to jammed lines; goodness knows there are a lot of questions to talk about on this anniversary.