Reporting on Colorado's gubernatorial race during the November 7 broadcast of KDVR Fox 31's Good Day Colorado at 6 a.m., reporter Sean Tobin claimed that while “most polls” show Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter in the lead, Republican Bob Beauprez “has been able to narrow that lead in most of those polls, so this could go right down to the wire.” Similarly, on the November 6 broadcast of KUSA's 9News at 10 p.m., reporter Carrie McClure claimed that “polls in recent days, both here in Colorado and across the nation, show Republican candidates gaining strength.” Neither reporter cited any specific polls to support the contention that recent polls in Colorado show Beauprez or any other Republican candidate narrowing the Democratic leads. In fact, recent polls for the gubernatorial race showed Ritter widening his lead within the margin of error.

As Colorado Media Matters has noted, two of the three most recent publicly available polls about the gubernatorial race showed Ritter widening his lead within those polls' margins of error when compared to previous versions of the same polls. The most recent 9News/SurveyUSA poll (conducted October 30-November 1) showed Ritter with a 22-percentage-point lead. A previous 9News/SurveyUSA poll, conducted October 20-22, had shown Ritter with an 18-percentage-point lead. The polls had margins of error of 3.8 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points, respectively.

The most recent Rocky Mountain News/CBS4/Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted October 28-30, also showed Ritter with a 22-percentage-point lead. A previous Rocky Mountain News/CBS4/Public Opinion Strategies poll, conducted September 10-12, had shown Ritter with a 17-percentage-point lead. Both polls had a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

According to former American Statistical Association president Fritz Scheuren, “a rule of thumb is to multiply the currently reported margin of error by 1.7 to obtain a more accurate estimate of the margin of error for the lead of one candidate over another. Thus, a reported 3 percent margin of error becomes about 5 percent and a reported 4 percent margin of error becomes about 7 percent when the size of the lead is being considered.”

A third recent poll, conducted via the Internet October 27-November 5 by the Polimetrix polling organization and released on November 6, showed Ritter leading Beauprez by 20 percentage points. The poll did not report a margin of error. Polimetrix did not previously poll this race, so it had no previous poll for comparison.

Fox 31's assertion that “Beauprez has been able to narrow [Ritter's] lead” echoed Beauprez's recent claim that he was “closing the gap,” as an October 31 Rocky Mountain News article quoted him as saying. The News article noted that Beauprez was “urging supporters to ignore polls showing him trailing Bill Ritter by double digits” and said Beauprez “cit[ed] in part an online Wall Street Journal-Zogby poll showing him within 2 percentage points of Ritter.” However, as the News reported, "[s]ome pollsters ... doubt the accuracy of online polling, fearing it can be skewed by regular survey participants and a void of seniors, low-income voters and others who don't use the Internet." A subsequent online Zogby poll, conducted October 23-27, showed Beauprez leading by 0.2 percentage points and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

McClure of 9News cited no evidence to support her claim that “polls in recent days” show Republicans “gaining strength” in Colorado.

From the November 7 broadcast of KDVR Fox 31's Good Day Colorado at 6 a.m.:

TOBIN: And depending upon which poll you look at depends upon which candidate is in the lead. In most polls, Ritter is in the lead, but Beauprez has been able to narrow that lead in most of those polls, so this could go right down to the wire. We're gonna have to keep our eyes on this one.

From the November 6 broadcast of KUSA's 9News at 10 p.m.:

MCCLURE: Tomorrow, after all, is expected to have a big turnout. In previous midterm elections in Colorado, about 50 percent of voters showed up at the polls. This year, the secretary of state projects it will be closer to 60 percent.

FLOYD CIRULI (9News political analyst): You've got to get those people to turn out, and I think that's the challenge.

MCCLURE: A challenge, Ciruli says, for Republicans especially this year, due to issues like the war in Iraq and the president's declining approval ratings.

CIRULI: I think Republicans have been especially concerned this year that their voters may just stay home and not come out to vote.

MCCLURE: But polls in recent days, both here in Colorado and across the nation, show Republican candidates gaining strength, many Democratic leads now narrowing.