News organizations reported that a recent shift in bond market interest rates known as an “inverted yield curve” could signal a recession. Fox Business host Lou Dobbs then claimed -- and President Donald Trump echoed -- that the media are “talking down” the economy to harm Trump's reelection chances. Others on Fox also suggested that media outlets are pushing for a recession to hurt Trump.
Fox News figures and Trump claim news outlets are trying to spark a recession
Written by Zachary Pleat
Published
After outlets reported that the market was showing a sign of recession, Lou Dobbs accused media of “talking down” the economy to put a Democrat in the White House
News organizations reported on a bond market event that has been an indicator of every previous recession since 1955. The Washington Post reported that on August 14, stock markets crashed in value “after the bond market sounded a loud warning that the U.S. economy might be headed toward a recession.” The article explained the worrying indicator:
Investors are spooked by a scenario known as the “inverted yield curve,” which occurs when the interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than the interest rates paid by long-term bonds. What it means is that people are so worried about the near-term future that they are piling into safer long-term investments.
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So why do investors care?
The yield curve has inverted before every U.S. recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. Because of that link, substantial and long-lasting inversions of the yield curve are largely viewed as a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way.
Fox Business host Lou Dobbs: The “leftist national media” are attempting to install a Democratic president in 2020 by “talking down the Trump stock market and the Trump economy.”
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From the August 14 edition of Fox Business' Lou Dobbs Tonight
LOU DOBBS (HOST): And today, a trillion dollar sell-off on Wall Street. Wall Street firms and the leftist national media talking down the Trump stock market and the Trump economy today. Their focus obviously 2020 and putting a radical “dimm" in the White House. Investors elated yesterday when president chose to delay more tariffs on about half of China's exports that otherwise would have been hit with tariffs at the first of next month. So why did the stock market plunge today? Well, we'll take it up. Much of the leftist media and business press in fact were agog over the inversion of the yield curve. Now, this is a big deal, ladies and gentlemen. We'll be talking about how big a deal -- or, today, the business press seems to also be breathlessly declaring a recession in immediate offing, despite more than 70% of country's biggest companies quarterly earnings much higher than Wall Street has been expecting.
Trump echoed Dobbs' segment by claiming media are trying to “crash the economy” to hurt his reelection chances, and Fox News followed his lead
Trump: “The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election.” [Twitter, 8/15/19]
Fox Business host Stuart Varney: “The media is talking down the economy deliberately. They want a recession.”
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From the August 16 edition of Fox Business' Varney & Co.
STUART VARNEY (HOST): President Trump again touting the strength of the U.S. economy.
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VARNEY: However, the mainstream media is playing up recession fears. Look at this headline, New York Times. Here we go. “Economic trouble signs hang over Trump's trade war.” OK. From The Washington Post, “Trump, banking on strong economy to win reelection, frets over a possible downturn.” Joining us, Jack Kingston, former Republican congressman from Georgia and a former CNN contributor. We’ll get into why you left CNN in just a moment. But first of all, my proposition to you is that the media is talking down the economy deliberately. They want a recession. Am I going too far?
Fox Business host Charles Payne: “The bigger threat are headlines of recession.”
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From the August 16 edition of Fox Business' Making Money
CHARLES PAYNE (HOST): Are enough Americans watching that so closely that they’re going to curtail back-to school-shopping or curtail Black Friday shopping and Christmas shopping and every other kind of shopping? I mean, do you think enough people in this country are watching that close enough? Or to me, I think the bigger threat are headlines of recession. Because people see those, you know, no matter what news service they subscribe to.
Fox contributor Liz Peek: “The liberal media knows very well if they can shake consumer confidence, make people doubt this recovery has legs, people will begin to retrench.”
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From the August 16 edition of Fox News' The Story
MARTHA MACCALLUM (ANCHOR): Some analysts are now predicting that an economic recession could lead to President Trump's downfall in the election in 2020. There are even reports that his own folks are concerned about that at this point. But my next guest argues the opposite. She says that despite what you have heard this week, the economic sky is not falling. She also says this today: “Let us not let left-wing media talk us into a recession. Make no mistake: they are eager to do so,” she writes.
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LIZ PEEK (FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR): Oh, I think the reporting has been very one-sided, Martha. Every bad thing that happens is exaggerated and you hear less and less about the good things that are happening. You don't hear about productivity increasing for the first time in a decade, or wages rising at over 4, 4.5%. Those things are very encouraging.
But look, let's connect the dots here. President Trump was elected and immediately consumer and business sentiment went through the roof -- heights we had not seen in a decade. What does that mean? It means consumers start to spend and businesses start to invest. The liberal media knows very well if they can shake consumer confidence, make people begin to doubt this recovery has legs, people will begin to retrench. And the good news is we just had really excellent consumer spending numbers, and frankly, I was very cheered by Walmart. Walmart had the best comp store sales in 10 years. So whatever they’re saying out there on the media, people just aren’t buying it. Instead, they’re going to the stores and buying what they want.
Fox & Friends: Media reports on recession indicators are a conspiracy to stop Trump’s reelection.
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From the August 19 edition of Fox News' Fox & Friends
AINSLEY EARHARDT (CO-HOST): Charles, I'm watching this and I'm like, it's so obvious what they're doing!' They do not want him to win again. And they don't like that the economy's doing well, apparently.
CHARLES PAYNE (FOX BUSINESS HOST): The CEO of Bank of America put it the best. Brian Moynihan said the only fear of recession we have is fear of recession. In other words, the only thing that can happen in this country right now that can derail this economic juggernaut is if everyone believes it's going to be derailed. And I hate to say it, but to the degree the media almost did that in December. And I think some people do it deliberately. Listen, there is no economic data out there that suggests we are on the cusp of a recession.
STEVE DOOCY (CO-HOST): Well, they have suggested the inverted yield curve where you got more money on the short-term bond than the long-term bond.
PAYNE: The two- and 10-year yield inverted for 24 hours. The spread since then has gotten wider. It's got to be longer than 24 hours.
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PAYNE: The bottom line is, is there seems to be a deliberate attempt by many people to make this economy go into recession.
DOOCY: You mean talk it down.
PAYNE: Talk it down.
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GRIFF JENKINS (FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT): What's the difference though, because, again, Steve mentioned the inverted yield curve, which no one seems to know unless you are an economist, right, but as I understand it it's different when it was a marker during high inflation vs. low inflation. Why does that matter?
PAYNE: A lot of things are different right now. This is the first time in history that governments around the world are borrowing money and you have to pay them to hold your money. In other words, if I'm Germany and you give Germany 10 bucks, in 10 years, 30 years, they will give you back $9.50. You know, I'm exaggerating, but I'm trying to make the point. It's odd. You've never heard that before. So, what happens is, when that's the case, guess where you go? You go to a country like America that's actually paying a yield. So billions if not trillions of dollars are pouring into our bonds. That's driving the yield down. This is where the inversion comes from. It's amazing -- $16 trillion dollars and a negative yield around the world. That money wants to find a place where they can get some return -- not to have to pay you for holding the money.