On the April 3 edition of MSNBC's Hardball, host Chris Matthews responded to Republican presidential candidate Tommy Thompson's assertion that “the only way a Republican can win in 2008 is carry the Upper Midwestern states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa” by saying: “You're speaking my language. I agree with you. That is the vulnerability of a [Sen.] Hillary [Rodham Clinton (D-NY)] campaign.” Matthews added: “Michigan, Ohio, those states in the industrial Midwest, they're sort of -- well, I think they're macho states. They're gun owner states. They may not like people like Hillary.” Matthews did not offer any evidence to support his claim and, in fact, recent polling in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio -- three of the four states Matthews and Thompson named -- suggests Clinton would run strongly in a general election campaign in those states:

• A University of Iowa poll, released April 3, noted that “Clinton led with 13.5 percent support” when respondents were “asked an 'open-ended' question -- to name their presidential preference -- without being prompted with candidates' names.” That same poll noted, “When registered Iowa voters were given the top six candidates by name, Clinton led statewide with 19.3 percent.”
• A Quinnipiac University poll released March 22 noted that Clinton “defeats [former New York] Mayor [Rudy] Giuliani 46-43 percent, Sen. [John] McCain [R-AZ] 46-42 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 51-32 percent” in general election match-ups in Ohio.
• A Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan poll, released February 2, found that Clinton topped Giuliani and McCain -- “46%-42% against Giuliani and 46%-43% against McCain.”

As Media Matters for America has previously noted, on the September 19, 2006, edition of Hardball, Matthews declared, "[G]o see Deer Hunter if you think [Clinton] can get elected president," adding that “Midwest guys” whose “idea of heaven is out hunting with the beer cans and shooting a pheasant or a bear” are “not up to modern women as president.” The Deer Hunter was released in 1978.

Later, Matthews asked Thompson if Clinton was “vulnerable on the Second Amendment,” to which Thompson replied that “most Democrats are, but especially Hillary,” offering no evidence for this assertion. Thompson later said “most gun owners are quite suspicious of -- of Democrats in general, as far as being gun owners. And they're also very suspicious, I think, of Mrs. Clinton,” adding “that is a problem I think she is going to have to overcome, if she is going to get elected president of the United States.” He added, “I ride a motorcycle. I hunt. I fish. That are the kind of values and the kind of things that people, you know, really relate to.” Matthews replied, “I think you're on to something up there.”

From the April 3 edition of MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews:

THOMPSON: Well, I think the only way that a Republican can win in 2008 is carry the Upper Midwestern states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa. And I think I am by far the strongest candidate to carry those four states. And I don't think --

MATTHEWS: You can beat Hillary in -- you know, you're speaking my language. I agree with you. That's the vulnerability of a Hillary campaign.

THOMPSON: That is right.

MATTHEWS: Michigan, Ohio, those states in the industrial Midwest, they're sort of -- well, I think they're macho states. They're gun owner states. They may not like people like Hillary. But when you tell it your way, why would you do better up there than Hillary?

THOMPSON: Well, I think there's no question about it, because you just got done saying it. These are states that are progressive, but they are also states that look forward to making sure that people rely upon each other, have a strong work ethics. That's why welfare reform was so favorably received in this particular area. That's why private school choices -- that's why people like the fact that we talk about fiscal conservatism. I just think the values, the ethics, the work ethics are the kinds of things that I -- I represent in the upper Midwest. And I think --

MATTHEWS: Is Hillary Clinton vulnerable on the Second Amendment?

THOMPSON: I think she is. I think most Democrats are, but especially Hillary. I think the Second Amendment are -- individuals that really believe in gun rights. And those individuals usually will vote for Republicans, especially somebody like myself that's a hunter.

MATTHEWS: And Hillary's not a hunter?

THOMPSON: I don't think so, but I'm not sure.

MATTHEWS: But you said she is especially vulnerable on the Second Amendment. How so?

THOMPSON: Well, I think most gun owners are quite suspicious of -- of Democrats in general, as far as being gun owners. And they're also very suspicious, I think, of Mrs. Clinton. And that is a problem I think she is going to have to overcome if she is going to get elected president of the United States. But I think people in the Upper Midwest -- I ride a motorcycle. I hunt. I fish. That are the kind of values and the kind of things that people, you know, really relate to.

MATTHEWS: I think you're on to something up there.