On FOX and MSNBC, battleground polls misrepresented to favor Bush

Written by Jeremy Cluchey

Published

Two days before the presidential election, NBC and FOX News Channel correspondents -- as well as MSNBC host Chris Matthews -- misrepresented or gave incomplete polling data from battleground states to support their claims that voters in those states are “trending” toward President George W. Bush.

From NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell's appearance on the October 31 edition of MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews:

MITCHELL: What we're seeing is a trend in a number of states that did go Democrat last time. We're seeing that it is trending toward the president. That is significant in a couple of places like Ohio and New Mexico. ... I'm just talking about the trend line toward the president in a couple of these blue states.

In addition to wrongly noting that Ohio went “Democrat last time” (Bush carried Ohio in 2000), Mitchell's claim that recent polling shows that support in New Mexico “is trending toward the president” was misleading. An American Research Group (ARG) poll conducted October 27 through October 30 showed Kerry up by one percentage point, 48-47, and a Zogby/Reuters poll released earlier in the day on October 31 reported a tie: 49 percent to 49 percent. The ARG and Zogby polls are the two most recent polls released for New Mexico.

Later in the same edition of Hardball, host Chris Matthews reported polling that suggested a strong Bush lead in Iowa:

MATTHEWS: Let's look at some of the states that do matter, like Iowa. An MSNBC/Knight Ridder/Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters in Iowa has President Bush beating Senator Kerry by five points, 49-44.

However, in citing only the MSNBC poll, which was conducted October 25-29, Matthews ignored several more recent or contemporaneous polls:

• The most recent Iowa poll -- the Zogby/Reuters poll conducted October 28-31 and released on October 31 -- gave Kerry a six-point lead in that state.

• A SurveyUSA poll conducted October 28-30 showed a tie in Iowa, 49 percent to 49 percent.

• A Des Moines Register poll conducted over the exact same period as the MSNBC poll showed Kerry up by three points with 48 percent to Bush's 45 percent. Contrary to Matthews's suggestion, the Register noted on November 1: “When all public polls of Iowans are considered, the trend lines are good for Kerry and bad for Bush. Public polls have shown the senator inching up in the state in recent days while the president is slipping.”

And on the October 31 edition of FOX News Channel's FOX Report with Shepard Smith, chief political correspondent Carl Cameron asserted: “Senator Kerry will campaign in Michigan, a state won by Al Gore, where the president has been coming on strong in recent days -- couldn't be any closer.” But while a few daily tracking polls have shown momentary Bush leads in Michigan, nearly every recent poll of Michigan voters shows Kerry ahead by anywhere between one and seven percentage points.