A November 2 New York Times article on recent American and Iraqi casualties in Iraq reported that "[a]lthough violence persisted outside Baghdad, civilian casualties in the capital appeared to decline sharply recently, with 317 civilians killed in October," adding that this number represented “a drop of more than 50 percent from August, when 656 civilians were killed, according to statistics gathered by the Interior Ministry.” Yet the article did not mention that ethnic cleansing may account for the decrease in civilian casualties, as noted by a number of other media outlets -- including McClatchy Newspapers, the Los Angeles Times, and The Washington Post -- and the Government Accountability Office's (GAO) director of international affairs and trade, Joseph A. Christoff. During an October 30 House Appropriations Committee hearing regarding a recent GAO study that found that overall attacks in Iraq have declined, Christoff told the committee that the GAO's figures do “not tak[e] into consideration the fact that there might be fewer attacks [on civilians] because you have ethnically cleansed neighborhoods.”

From the November 2 New York Times article, headlined “3 G.I.'s Die in Iraq's North; Baghdad Civilian Toll Falls”:

Three American soldiers died in attacks in northern Iraq, the military announced Thursday, while in troubled Diyala Province at least 14 Iraqis were killed in three incidents.

Although violence persisted outside Baghdad, civilian casualties in the capital appeared to decline sharply recently, with 317 civilians killed in October. That was a drop of more than 50 percent from August, when 656 civilians were killed, according to statistics gathered by the Interior Ministry. As recently as May, 1,070 civilians were killed.

Interior Ministry statistics are incomplete, but the trends appear to be consistent with those identified by news agencies that gather data on civilian casualties.

Yet the Times did not mention that ethnic cleansing may account for the decrease in Iraqi civilian casualties. As the blog Think Progress noted, in his October 30 testimony, Christoff linked “ethnically cleansed neighborhoods” to a reduction in the number of attacks in Iraq. He added that another “thing to look at” is the 2.2 million Iraqis who have fled Iraq, as well as the 2 million people who have been displaced inside Iraq. From the October 30 House Appropriations Committee hearing:

CHRISTOFF: I can talk a little bit about ethnic cleansing because I think that's an important consideration in even assessing the overall security situation in Iraq. You know, we look at the attack data going down, but it's not taking into consideration the fact that there might be fewer attacks because you have ethnically cleansed neighborhoods, particularly in the Baghdad area.

[...]

CHRISTOFF: And then the other important situation -- thing to look at is that you have to decide if the, you know -- where is the ethnic cleansing and what has been produced? It's produced 2.2 million refugees that have left; it's produced 2 million internally displaced persons, IDPs, within the country as well.

An October 31 McClatchy Newspapers article on the recent reduction in violence in Iraq reported that "[s]ome [Baghdad] residents believe the drop in Iraqi deaths in the capital has happened because so much ethnic cleansing has left simply fewer people to kill." On August 15, McClatchy similarly reported that some U.S. military officers believe that the reduced number of bodies found in streets “may be an indication that ethnic cleansing has been completed in many neighborhoods and that there aren't as many people to kill”:

One bright spot has been the reduction in the number of bodies found on the streets, considered a sign of sectarian violence. That number was 44 percent lower in July, compared to December. In July, the average body count per day was 18.6, compared with 33.2 in December, two months before the surge.

But the reason for that decline isn't clear. Some military officers believe that it may be an indication that ethnic cleansing has been completed in many neighborhoods and that there aren't as many people to kill.

A November 1 Los Angeles Times article on the recent decrease in violence in Iraq reported that “American commanders credit the [U.S. troop] buildup, which reached full strength in June, with slowing sectarian bloodshed,” but added: "[O]thers say that the picture is more complicated than that because those seeking to cleanse their neighborhoods of rival religious sects have largely succeeded." From the article:

“Everyone in our neighborhood is Sunni, even the birds flying above us are Sunni,” said Mohammed Azzawi, a resident of the once mixed district of Ghazaliya.

A year ago, his street was a battleground between Shiite and Sunni militants. Now it is segregated between its Shiite northern tip and its Sunni south.

[...]

“Certainly the presence of [U.S.] soldiers in insecure neighborhoods in Baghdad could stabilize the neighborhood, resulting in less violence and fewer people fleeing the neighborhood,” said Dana Graber Ladek, Iraqi case officer for the International Organization for Migration. “In addition, as neighborhoods become homogeneous, violence is likely to decrease and fewer people are likely to flee these areas.”

[...]

For Shiites in neighborhoods across Baghdad, many still see the militia, not the government, as their legitimate defender.

In New Baghdad, Mohammed Ashraf, 28, described sectarian cleansing as the heavy price of safety. “It's a popular Shiite neighborhood and therefore it's only natural that they shall prevail. They work in coordination with both the Iraqi police and army,” Ashraf said. “Sure there are some negative aspects in them, but the positive ones outweigh those, such as providing essential services and security to the people.”

The November 2 Post article -- headlined “In Iraq, a Lull or Hopeful Trend?” -- also noted the role sectarian cleansing may have played in the reduced violence in Iraq:

Many formerly mixed Sunni-Shiite areas have become largely the domain of one sect, since millions of Iraqis have fled their homes for other countries or other parts of Iraq over the years. “It's much harder to conduct sectarian cleansing if you've got a homogenous neighborhood which has a local volunteer security force which is on the lookout for those people,” [Lt. Col. Steven] Miska [a deputy brigade commander stationed in the Shiite enclave of Kadhimiyah] said.

Moreover, the August 2007 National Intelligence Estimate found that "[p]opulation displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues" in Iraq and that where it has “led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves”:

Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences spreading across Iraq's borders over the next six to 12 months. The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.