BTW, Palin's 80% favorable rating among Republicans is meaningless

Written by Eric Boehlert

Published

We see this more and more in the press, as reporters point to a recent Gallup poll that found 80 percent of self-identified Republicans have a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin. The data point is usually used by reporters to indicate that Palin's chances of winning the Republican primaries would be high if she entered race for the White House, and to show what a formidable electoral force she could be.

From the Christian Science Monitor [emphasis added]:

Palin clearly could win the Republican nomination. That doesn't mean she will – at this early stage, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney probably remains the GOP frontrunner. But 80 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of the former Alaska governor, according to a recent Gallup poll.

While it's certainly possible Palin could win the GOP nod, the 80 percent figure from Gallup is wildly misleading and probably should not be used by journalists as proof of Palin's inner-party popularity.

Here's the simple reason why the figure is misleading: Even though lots of Republicans might view Palin favorably, most of them wouldn't support her for president. At least not according to the latest polling data. Meaning, it's a big leap between “favorable” and actually voting, and it would be helpful if journalists kept that in mind.

Gallup actually spelled out the disconnect out last week. Days after the favorable finding were published, Gallup released another survey that found when Republican voters were asked to choose among prominent candidates who might run in 2012, Palin garnered 16 percent of the support. That put her at the front of the GOP pack, but it's still quite a drop off from 80 percent. (A poll last week found that Palin would only get 15 percent of the vote among Republicans in Alaska if she ran in 2012.)

Or look at the ABC News/Washington Post poll from last month that asked Republican voters if they thought Palin was “qualified” to be president. Almost half (46 percent) said no.

And just as an FYI, a recent CBS poll found that Palin's favorable rating among Republicans was nowhere near the 80 percent figure that Gallup came up with. In the CBS poll, Palin was view favorably by just 44 percent of Republican voters. That's probably another reason journalists might want to shy away from pushing that 80 percent favorable figure for Palin.