Wash. Times cites GOP criticism of White House estimate of stimulus jobs

Wash. Times: “Republicans say the numbers simply don't wash.” After reporting that the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimated that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) “raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by 1½ to 2 million,” a January 14 Washington Times article reported: “Republicans say the numbers simply don't wash.” The article then quoted Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) saying: “It's telling that the Obama administration believes that they can make a credible argument of stimulus success in the face of 10 percent unemployment, while simultaneously changing the way they measure jobs 'saved or created' to better fit their political needs.” The article also quoted Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) commenting: “Like former President Bill Clinton famously stated, I guess it depends on what the definition of a job is. ... From exaggerated claims to fake jobs in fake congressional districts, these stimulus reports have lost all credibility.” [The Washington Times, 1/14/10]

But White House's numbers are “within the range of other projections” including Moody's, CBO

White House economic advisors: “the ARRA has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by 1½ to 2 million.” In a quarterly report issued January 13, the CEA estimated: “As of the fourth quarter of 2009, the CEA estimates that the ARRA has raised employment relative to the baseline by between 1½ and 2 million. The CEA estimates for both the effects on GDP and employment are similar to those of respected private forecasters and government agencies.” The report also stated, “For the third quarter of 2009, we now have direct reports on jobs created or saved from a subset of recipients of ARRA funds. These reports identify 640,000 jobs that would not have existed but for the Recovery Act.”

CEA: Our estimates are within the range of other projections. Discussing its projection, the Council of Economic Advisers noted, "[O]ur estimates are within the range of other projections, though somewhat above the median." From the CEA's quarterly report:

CBO: 600,000 to 1.6 million jobs created through end of third quarter 2009. In 2009, CBO estimated that the stimulus had already created between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs by November 2009:

CBO estimates that in the third quarter of calendar year 2009, an additional 600,000 to 1.6 million people were employed in the United States, and real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher, than would have been the case in the absence of ARRA (see Table 1). Those ranges are intended to reflect the uncertainty of such estimates and to encompass most economists' views on the effects of fiscal stimulus. [Congressional Budget Office, November 2009]