Trump Claims Murder Rates In New York City Have Increased

Trump: “Murders Are Up” In New York City. The Washington Post reported that during the first 2016 presidential debate, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump interrupted Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to claim that she was “wrong” about crime decreasing after New York City moved away from stop and frisk and that “murders are up.” From the Post:

During a discussion about crime, Donald Trump again portrayed himself as a candidate of law and order. He pointed to stop-and-frisk, a tactic utilized by police in New York, as something he thinks helped that city and could work nationally. “We have to bring back law and order,” Trump said.

Trump criticized New York moving away from the practice (it was deemed unconstitutional by a federal judge in 2013), suggesting that current Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) should have fought to keep it in place.

Hillary Clinton pointed out that even after de Blasio took office, and after New York moved away from stop-and-frisk, crime has continued to drop, including murders.

“You’re wrong,” Trump said, interrupting her. “Murders are up.” [The Washington Post, 9/26/16]

Fox News Defends Trump Using Incomplete Chart Showing Murder Statistics For 2014 And 2015

Fox Host Megyn Kelly: “Murders Are Up. … In 2014 It Was 333 Murders; In 2015 It’s 352 Murders.” During Fox News’ post-debate coverage, host Megyn Kelly defended Trump’s claim, asserting that “murders are up and these are the facts. In 2014 it was 333 murders; in 2015 it’s 352 murders.” Fox used an on-screen chart displaying FBI murder statistics for New York City in 2014 and 2015. Trump surrogate David Wohl also backed up Trump’s assertion, claiming that “murder skyrocketed” in New York City after Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio reduced the use of stop and frisk by police. From the September 26 edition of Fox News’ The Kelly File:

DAVID WOHL: [On] the issue of crime in New York City, you recall that Hillary Clinton says it’s gone down. Donald Trump said no, that’s a lie. As it turns out rape, robbery, murder skyrocketed. Property crime, inconsequential crime is down. So he should have brought that up a little more firmly, but that’s the truth. Really serious crime is way up. When it comes to law and order she won’t even say those words and that’s critical to your average voter.

MEGYN KELLY (HOST): We actually have a sound bite of that. Let’s watch Trump and Hillary arguing over crime in New York City.

[BEGIN VIDEO]

DONALD TRUMP: Stop and frisk had a tremendous impact on the safety of New York City. Tremendous beyond belief. So when you say it has no impact, it really did, it had a very, very big impact.

HILLARY CLINTON: Well, it’s also fair to say, if we’re going to talk about mayors, that under the current mayor, crime has continued to drop, including murders. So, there is --

TRUMP: No, you're wrong. You’re wrong.

CLINTON: No, I’m not.

TRUMP: Murders are up. All right. You check.

[END VIDEO]

KELLY: Murders are up, and these are the facts. In 2014 it was 333 murders, in 2015 it’s 352 murders. [Fox News, The Kelly File, 9/26/16]

In Reality, 2016 Murder Rates In NYC Are Down From This Time Last Year

Wash. Post: “Trump Is Incorrect” -- Murders In NYC Are Down From The Same Point Last Year. In a debate live feed, The Washington Post’s Mark Berman explained that “Trump is incorrect” in his claim that murders in New York City have increased. Berman reported that “last year, murders did go up in New York City, rising to 352 from 333 the year before” but now “murders are down from the same point last year falling to 246 murders through last week from 257 such killings a year earlier.” From The Washington Post:

Hillary Clinton pointed out that even after de Blasio took office, and after New York moved away from stop-and-frisk, crime has continued to drop, including murders.

“You’re wrong,” Trump said, interrupting her. “Murders are up.”

Trump is incorrect. So far this year, murders are down from the same point last year, falling to 246 murders through last week from 257 such killings a year earlier, according to New York police data. In addition, shootings have dropped this year, with 10 percent fewer shooting victims through the same point.

Last year, murders did go up in New York City, rising to 352 from 333 the year before. (Numerous cities saw spikes in homicides last year, and FBI crime data released hours before the debated (sic) showed homicides were up nationwide.) Still, historically, New York is far safer than it was just a few years ago. The 352 murders reported last year was still nearly 200 killings behind the total in 2010, when stop-and-frisk was in effect. [The Washington Post, 9/26/16]

Other Media Outlets Debunk Trump With Complete Data Demonstrating NYC Murders Are Down

MSNBC: “The Latest Figures Don’t Show, However, That Murders Are Up.” In a segment from MSNBC’s post-debate coverage, MSNBC justice correspondent Pete Williams debunked Trump, noting that “the latest figures don’t show, however, that murders are up in New York.” MSNBC displayed a complete murder statistic chart showing that while “murders were actually down by five” in 2014 before going “back up to 352 in 2015,” data for 2016 shows that murders are down. Williams explained, “so far this year, [there were] 246 [murders], compared to 257 at this same time last year.” From the September 26 edition of MSNBC’s Live Post Debate:

PETE WILLIAMS: The latest figures don’t show, however, that murders are up in New York. Here’s a look at some of the data. So the murder rate went -- in 2013, it was 333, in 2012, down from 2012, 419. Then in 2013, in August 2013, is when a federal judge put a stop to the stop and frisk program, declaring that it was unconstitutional because it improperly focused too much on racial minorities. The following year, or the following what -- year and a half after that ruling, year and a quarter, murders were actually down by five, back up to 352 in 2015, but so far this year at 246, compared to 257 at this same time last year.

The spokesman for the New York City police department, J. Peter Donald, was tweeting during the debate. He said the stop, question, and frisk is down nearly 97 percent and crime, murder, and shootings have decreased significantly during that same period. So murders are down in New York, but of course it's also true that they started to drop at the time the city started to use the stop and frisk program, but the unknowable question is what’s the cause and effect. [MSNBC, Live Post Debate, 9/26/16]

ABC News: Trump’s Murder Rate Claim Is “Mostly False.” ABC News fact-checked Trump’s claims about the New York City murder rate, calling it “mostly false,” and noting that although “[de Blasio’s] second year in office saw an uptick to 352 murders,” “this year, murders in New York City are down more than 4 percent than the same time period last year.” From ABCNews.com:

Clinton: “Under the current [New York City] mayor, crime has continued to drop, including murders.”

Trump: “You're wrong...Murders are up.”

Grade: Mostly False

Explanation: New York City mayor Bill de Blasio was sworn into office on Jan. 1, 2014. Each of his first two years in office saw an overall drop in the seven major felony crimes, and so far this year major crimes are down nearly 3 percent compared to the same period last year. Murder statistics present a slightly more complicated picture during de Blasio's tenure. His first year in office saw 333 murders, two fewer than the year before. But his second year in office saw an uptick to 352 murders. So far this year, murders in New York City are down more than 4 percent than the same time period last year (246 murders through Sept. 18, 2016, versus 257 murders during the same time last year). [ABC News, 9/27/16]

CNN: “Murders Are Down.” An online “reality check” from CNN’s Lisa Rose debunked Trump’s allegations about the New York City murder rate, explaining that, “According to the New York City Police Department's weekly CompStat report, murders are down for the year to date in 2016 compared with 2015, falling 4.3% from 257 to 246”:

Trump gave a hat tip to his hometown during the debate -- by claiming that the crime rate in New York is going up.

He interjected while Clinton was arguing against stop-and-frisk policing. She declared that the Big Apple is safer under Mayor Bill de Blasio.

“Under the current mayor, crime has continued to drop, including murders,” Clinton said.
“You're wrong,” Trump retorted.

According to the New York City Police Department's weekly CompStat report, murders are down for the year to date in 2016 compared with 2015, falling 4.3% from 257 to 246. An NYPD spokesman tweeted as the candidates clashed, “NYC is on pace to have one of the safest years on record for crime.” [CNN, 9/26/16]