Jobs Report For October 2016 Shows Steady Job Creation, Accelerating Wage Growth

BLS: Economy Generated 161,000 New Jobs Last Month As Unemployment Rate Fell To 4.9 Percent. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the American economy created 161,000 new jobs in October and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent, driven by job growth in health care, professional and business services, and the financial sector. The BLS also reported that 44,000 more jobs were created in August and September than previously estimated while average hourly earnings are up 2.8 percent from this time last year.

[Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 2016]

NY Times: “The Last Major Snapshot Of The Economy Before Election Day … Suggested A Healthy Outlook For The Months Ahead.” According to The New York Times, the jobs report showed steady employment growth and an unemployment rate near its lowest point of the Obama administration, which it said “suggested a healthy outlook for the months ahead.” The Times added that “the robust bump in wages” was “even more encouraging” and indicated that “ordinary workers are finally getting a slice of the rewards” from a healthy labor market. From the November 4 article:

“It was pretty positive across the board,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, adding that “most importantly, we got a nice jump in average hourly earnings and that actually corresponds with other data.”

[...]

“These are all signs that the labor market continues to strengthen and is at its strongest point since the crisis,” [economist Jed Kolko] said. [The New York Times, 11/4/16]

Wash. Post: “America’s Labor Market Continues To Show Signs Of Gradual Strengthening.” According to The Washington Post, the October jobs report means “America’s labor market continues to show signs of gradual strengthening” as the economy “steadily emerg[es] from the shadow of the Great Recession.” The Post noted that economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy to produce 173,000 new jobs last month, more than the BLS’ initial estimate for October, but cautioned that some economists believe that Hurricane Matthew “may have temporarily prevented businesses from adding to their payrolls”:

While monthly job gains for October were slightly below expectations, the Labor Department on Friday also revised upward its estimates for job creation in August and September, adding a combined 44,000 jobs. Some economist also cautioned that Hurricane Matthew may have temporarily prevented businesses from adding to their payrolls.

The final piece of economic data released before the presidential election on Tuesday, the jobs report showed an economy that is steadily emerging from the shadow of the Great Recession. Analysts said Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump could seize on varying aspects of the data to make their closing arguments in the campaign. [The Washington Post, 11/4/16]

FiveThirtyEight: “Most Of The Employment Gains Over The Past Year Have Been In Full-Time Work.” FiveThirtyEight chief economics writer Ben Casselman outlined several trends in the monthly jobs data, including noting that “upward revisions to August and September’s jobs figures” had “largely offset” an October job figure that came in “a bit below economists’ expectations.” The website reported that “most of the employment gains over the past year have been in full-time work” and demonstrated that the number of part-time workers looking for full-time work remains near its lowest point of the Obama administration:

[FiveThirtyEight, 11/4/16]

CNNMoney: “Solid Jobs Numbers … Come One Week After America Posted Its Best Quarter Of Growth In Two Years.” CNNMoney reported that the strong job creation number marked the “73rd consecutive month of job gains” for the U.S. while year-to-year wage growth of 2.8 percent was “the fastest growth since June 2009.” The article noted that these positive economic indicators “come one week after” the Commerce Department reported the “best quarter of [economic growth] in two years” as the economy expanded at a 2.9 percent annual pace from July through September. The article added that the monthly data “has become a divisive subject in the presidential election” and that the Trump campaign is spinning it as a “disastrous jobs report”:

The jobs report has become a divisive subject in the presidential election. Donald Trump has called the official unemployment rate a “hoax” and he's tried to discredit the Labor Department's official numbers.

[...]

Trump campaign said in a statement that it was a “disastrous jobs report.” He criticized the economy's performance during President Obama's tenure. He also noted the high poverty levels among young black Americans. [CNNMoney, 11/4/16]

Fox Portrays October Jobs Report As A Plus For Trump’s Election Hopes

Fox Hosts Spin October Jobs Report As A Win For Donald Trump. The studio crews of Fox News’ Fox & Friends and Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria joined forces as the monthly jobs report was released to misleadingly label it “underwhelming” and a potential boon for Trump. Ignoring all of the positive trends in the report, Fox emphasized that that the October jobs number was slightly below expectations. None of the five in-studio Fox personalities mentioned that job creation in August and September was considerably better than previously estimated, despite Fox News correspondent Peter Barnes pointing out that good news at the outset of the segment:

[Fox News, Fox & Friends, 11/4/16]

Varney & Co. Repeatedly Slammed The Jobs Report: “This Report Is Much Worse Than We Thought.” Fox Business’ Varney & Co. was unrelenting in its negative portrayal of the October jobs report, with host Stuart Varney opening his program by bizarrely claiming that “it’s not good” and that “America is not on the road to prosperity.” Minutes later, Varney and guest Liz Peek suggested that “another disappointing report” should be “a plus for Trump.” Peek repeated the discredited right-wing myth that the report showed “Obamacare [is] tilting employees towards part-time employment” and even claimed that “today’s report is the worst of all worlds” because it might encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Varney concluded his screed by misleadingly claiming that report “is much worse than we thought” because part-time jobs last month were “up 90,000” while full-time jobs were “down 103,000.” This feat is only possible if you conflate the BLS “household” and “establishment” surveys -- completely unrelated data sets:

STUART VARNEY (HOST): We’ve taken a close -- much closer look at that jobs report, and look what we’ve found. Part-time jobs, up 90,000. Full-time jobs, down 103,000. That’s what we’re doing in our economy: part-time jobs, oh lots of them, up 90,000, but you want a full-time, well-paid job, forget it. Down 103,000. We missed that out of our report at the top of the show, and I deeply apologize. This report is much worse than we thought. [Fox Business, Varney & Co., 11/4/16, 11/4/16, 11/4/16; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Frequently Asked Questions, October 2016]

Fox’s Martha MacCallum Distorts Jobs Report But Gets Fact-Checked By On-Screen Graphics. Fox News co-host Martha MacCallum briefly outlined the key takeaways in the October jobs report, claiming that job creation was “really pretty lukewarm” because it came in right below expectations before claiming the so-called “real unemployment number” was 9.5 percent last month. While MacCallum claimed that job creation was “lukewarm,”an on-screen graphic stated, “Jobs Report Shows Steady Economy.” Meanwhile, she neglected to mention that the 9.5 percent rate for the broadest unemployment measure is actually the strongest showing since May 2008 -- seven months before President Obama took office. From the November 4 edition of America’s Newsroom:

[Fox News, America’s Newsroom, 11/4/16; BLS.gov, accessed 11/4/16]