12 Failed Dick Morris Predictions

Written by Eric Hananoki & Ben Dimiero

Published

During this election cycle, Fox News political analyst Dick Morris repeatedly made outlandish and bizarre electoral predictions at odds with polling data and common sense. His predictions were “so far out on the limb” that Bill O'Reilly told him if Barack Obama wins the election, Morris would be “through.” Morris' long track record of terrible prognostication shows that his many strikeouts this cycle aren't an aberration but a steady flow of failure.

Media Matters looks back at 12 of Morris' many predictions that didn't come true.

Prediction: Mitt Romney Will Defeat President Obama In “A Landslide”

Actual Result: President Obama was re-elected.                      

“There Is No Chance That Obama Will Get Re-elected.”

MORRIS: Look, I believe that -- and I've said this before and everybody either gives a sigh of a relief or a cynical laugh -- there is no chance that Obama will get re-elected.

HANNITY: I don't agree that's true. I think it's possible.

MORRIS: Zilch, none, zip, nada. [Fox News, Hannity, 2/27/12] 

“Romney Will Win By A Very Large Margin -- A Landslide If You Will.” 

MORRIS: We're going to win by -- Romney will win by a very large margin. A landslide, if you will. I believe he'll win by more than five points in the popular vote. I think he'll get 325 electoral votes. [Fox News, America Live, 11/5/12]

Dick Morris' Presidential Map Missed Badly.

[Fox News, Hannity, 11/5/12]

Morris predicted Romney wins in Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Colorado. He lost each of those states. 

For more on Dick Morris' terrible predictions about a Romney “landslide” victory, go here.

Prediction: Republicans Are “Going To Win 10 Seats In The Senate”

Actual Result: Democrats added to their majority in the Senate. 

“But This Time - Honest - We Are Going To Win!” From a column on Morris' website:

I know we predicted Republican Senate control in 2010.  Republicans did gain seven seats and came within four of winning control.  Razor thin defeats in Colorado and Washington and unexpected thrashings in Nevada and West Virginia proved us wrong.

But this time - honest - we are going to win! [DickMorris.com, 2/4/11]

“We Are Also, By The Way, Going To Win 10 Seats In The Senate.” [Fox News, Hannity, 2/27/12]

Republicans “Have A Shot” At 60 Senate Seats. [Fox News, Hannity, 5/7/12]

“The Most Likely Result Would Be 52-48, 53-47, But There Is An Outside Chance That It Could Go As High As 56 Or 57 Republican Seats.” [YouTube.com, 8/5/12]

“I Think That They Absolutely Will. I Believe That They Will Win The Senate.” [Fox News, The O'Reilly Factor, 9/19/12]

Signs Point To “A Very Significant Republican Win” In The Senate. [Fox News, On The Record with Greta Van Susteren, 10/4/12]  

53 Seats Is “My Personal Hunch.” [YouTube.com, 10/28/12]

Watch a compilation of these Morris Senate predictions below:

Prediction: “It's Very Possible” Obama Will Drop Out Of The Presidential Race

Actual result: Obama did not drop out and won re-election.

Obama “Cost His Party The Senate” And “He Might Not Even Run.” From Dick Morris' column, headlined, “Obama might pull out”:

As bad news piles up for the Democrats, I asked a top Democratic strategist if it were possible that President Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and soberly face the cameras, telling America that he has decided that the demands of partisan politics are interfering with his efforts to right our economy and that he has decided to withdraw to devote full time to our recovery. His answer: “Yes. It's possible. If things continue as they are and have not turned around by January, it is certainly possible.”

Just looking at Michelle Obama's unsmiling face during her husband's recent speech to Congress triggered an insight: These folks aren't having fun anymore.

Obama, whose insistence on passing a healthcare law that the courts will probably throw out cost his party the House, will now cost his party the Senate too. Indeed, it is even possible that the Republicans win 60 seats.

[...]

But the kind of enthusiasm Obama kindled in 2008 cannot be ignited easily by negative appeals. Particularly if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate such as Mitt Romney, Obama will not be able to rely on partisan animosity to succeed where job approval has failed. And, given all that, he might not even run. [The Hill, 9/20/11]

“It's Very Possible” That Obama Won't Run For Re-Election Because His Numbers Are So Bad.

[Premiere Radio Networks, The Sean Hannity Show, 9/28/11]

Prediction: Donald Trump Is “Going To Run” For President And “He Could Beat Obama”

Actual result: Trump did not run and did not beat Obama.

“I Think He's Going To Run, I Think He's Got A Good Shot At The Nomination, If He Were Nominated, He Could Beat Obama.”

GALLAGHER: Hey Dick Morris, you sound intrigued by a Donald Trump candidacy.

MORRIS: Oh I am. I am. I take him very seriously. I think he's going to run, I think he's got a good shot at the nomination, and I think if he were nominated, he could beat Obama. [Salem Radio Network, The Mike Gallagher Show, 4/28/12]

Prediction: Herman Cain “Will Overcome” Sexual Misconduct Allegations

Actual Result: In the midst of controversy, Herman Cain suspended his presidential campaign on December 3, 2011.

“Why Cain Will Overcome.” In a November 10 blog post, headlined, “Why Cain Will Overcome,” Morris predicted that Cain “would survive” the allegations, writing:

We are mired in the worst economic condition in eighty years and will not tolerate more talk about who invited whom up to their room and for what. We don't care. We don't want to know. We want you to go away and let us choose a president based on the serious and grave issues we are trying to consider. We think the media is a distraction and we want it to stop its drumbeat coverage. Pro-Cain or anti-Cain is irrelevant. We want the issue to go away!

This third dimension of public reaction was evident when the CNBC reporters in last night's debate tried to ask Cain about the accusations. The crowd would have none of it. When the reporters tried to couch the questions as relating to managerial ability or the character required of a CEO, they still hooted down the question. In that moment, I realized that Cain would survive for the same reason Clinton made it - we have more important things to worry about. [DickMorris.com, 11/10/11] 

“I Do Not Think That Herman Cain Has Been Fatally Damaged.”

[Fox News, Hannity, 11/28/11]

“I Don't Think He's Going Any Place Very Quickly.”

MORRIS: Well, first of all, I don't think he's going any place very quickly. I think that, you know, he's not a politician. He's a business-type. And when something new happens, he reassesses his business plan. I think that it's not at all clear he's dropping out, and apparently I've heard that he's gotten tons of emails to stay in. Even if people don't like him, many people do, and I do, but even if people don't like him, they're saying don't let this kind of garbage determine who the next president is, for God's sakes. [Fox News, Fox & Friends, 11/30/11]

Prediction: Michele Bachmann Will “Probably” Win Or “Have A Strong Second” In Iowa

Actual Result: Bachmann ended her presidential campaign after a sixth place finish in Iowa.

“Bachmann Is Probably Going To Win” Iowa.

[Fox News, Hannity, 8/15/11]

“Bachmann May Have A Strong Second Place Finish In Iowa.”

[Fox News, Hannity, 12/5/11]

Prediction: Connie Mack (R-FL) Will “Overwhelmingly” Defeat Bill Nelson           

Actual Result: Nelson easily defeated Mack, 55-42.

"With Nelson So Far Under 50%, He Is Meat." From a column on Morris' website:

Congressman Connie Mack, the likely challenger to Democratic Senator Bill Nelson currently leads by 43-36 according to Rasmussen's poll of March 13, 2012. With Nelson so far under 50%, he is meat. [DickMorris.com, 3/22/12]

“It Looks Clearly That Mack Is Going To Win That Race.” [YouTube.com, 8/5/12]

“It's Going To Be Overwhelmingly For Mack.” [Fox News, Hannity, 8/6/12]

“That's A Seat That's Gone. We're Gonna Win That Easily.” [YouTube.com, 8/8/12]

“I Think Connie Mack, The Republican, Will Be Able To Beat Him.” [Fox News, The O'Reilly Factor, 9/19/12]

Watch video of Morris' predictions about Florida's Senate race:

Prediction: Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) “Will Knock Off” Debbie Stabenow

Actual Result: Stabenow easily beat Hoekstra by nearly 20 percentage points (with 94% reporting).

Hoekstra “Could Win In A 10- To 15-Point Landslide (which is shaping up).” From a Morris column in The Hill (headlined, “Obama might pull out [of the presidential race]”):

Currently, there are strong Republican candidates in 12 seats now held by Democrats. All could win in a 10- to 15-point landslide (which is shaping up). They include: Virginia (George Allen), Florida (Adam Hasner), New Mexico (probably Rep. Steve Pearce), Montana (Rep. Denny Rehberg), North Dakota (Rep. Rick Berg), Nebraska (Jon Bruning), Missouri (Sarah Steelman would be the best), Michigan (Pete Hoekstra), Ohio (Josh Mandel would be best), Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson or one of the others), Pennsylvania (Tim Burns would be great) and Connecticut (Chris Shays -- better than Linda McMahon). [The Hill, 9/20/11]

“We Will Knock Off Stabenow.”

[Talk Radio Network, The Laura Ingraham Show, 6/7/12]

Hoekstra “Is Hot On The Heels Of Democratic Incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow.” From a column on Morris' website:

And don't forget the impact of a Romney victory on the U.S. Senate races. In Pennsylvania, Republican Tom Smith now leads Democratic incumbent Bob Casey according to McLaughlin's survey. In Wisconsin, former Governor and Republican candidate Tommy Thompson is locked in a close battle with Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin for an open Senate seat. And in Michigan, former Congressman Pete Hoekstra (Republican) is hot on the heels of Democratic incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow. [DickMorris.com, 10/22/12]

Prediction: Duane Sand (R-ND) “Is Going To Win” North Dakota's Republican Senate Primary

Actual result: Republican Rick Berg defeated Sand, 67,860 (66.4%) to 34,213 (33.5%) in their party primary. [North Dakota Secretary of State, accessed 11/5/12]

Prediction: “Berg Is Going To Lose And I Think Sand Is Going To Win.” From an interview on a North Dakota radio station:

TOM BECKA: Duane is a longshot. You gotta be realistic and look at this, look at the money that is being raised and everything else. He's a longshot. How does a guy like Duane Sand turn that around?

MORRIS: Well, he's made a very bold proposal lately, which is to eliminate the state income tax in North Dakota. And use the oil money that's coming in, earmark it for a reduction in the income tax. He says that with each five percent extra revenue we get from oil and other sources, we cut the income tax half a point. And by two or three or four years, there is no income tax. Rick Berg voted against cutting the income tax by 50 percent. And against cutting the corporate income tax by one-third, and for a half a cent increase in the sales tax in Cass County. When voters see that rather strong contrast, I think Berg is going to lose and I think Sand is going to win.

[KRWK, The Tom Becka Show, 4/27/12] 

Prediction: Sherrod Brown (D-OH) “Needs To Look For A New Job”

Actual Result: Brown defeated Republican challenger Josh Mandel.

Mandel “Could Win In A 10- To 15-Point Landslide (which is shaping up).” From a Morris column in The Hill (headlined, “Obama might pull out [of the presidential race]”):

Currently, there are strong Republican candidates in 12 seats now held by Democrats. All could win in a 10- to 15-point landslide (which is shaping up). They include: Virginia (George Allen), Florida (Adam Hasner), New Mexico (probably Rep. Steve Pearce), Montana (Rep. Denny Rehberg), North Dakota (Rep. Rick Berg), Nebraska (Jon Bruning), Missouri (Sarah Steelman would be the best), Michigan (Pete Hoekstra), Ohio (Josh Mandel would be best), Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson or one of the others), Pennsylvania (Tim Burns would be great) and Connecticut (Chris Shays -- better than Linda McMahon). [The Hill, 9/20/11]

Republicans Will “Win Likely Ohio.”

[Talk Radio Network, The Laura Ingraham Show, 6/7/12]

"Any Incumbent Senator Who Can Only Amass 40% Of The Vote Needs To Look For A New Job." From a column on Morris' website:

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, the most liberal member of that body, is trailing conservative Republican Josh Mandel by 44-40 in Rasmussen's February 8, 2012 poll. Any incumbent Senator who can only amass 40% of the vote needs to look for a new job. [DickMorris.com, 3/22/12]

Prediction: Tom Smith (R-PA) “Will Beat Bob Casey”

Actual Result: Casey beat Smith.

Pennsylvania “Is Ready To Throw Out Casey.” From a column on Morris' website:

Masquerading as pro-life, in the image of his father the Governor, in Revolt!, we detail his pro-choice votes. Casey got a 65% favorable rating from NARAL - the National Abortion Rights League. Some pro-lifer! After Pennsylvania elected a Republican senator and governor, it is ready to throw out Casey the counterfeit! [DickMorris.com, 3/7/11]

Chances Of Defeating Casey “Are Excellent.” From a column on Morris' website:

And Republican chances of ousting Democratic Senators in Michigan (Stabenow), Pennsylvania (Casey), and Wisconsin (vacant Democratic seat) are excellent. Even in New Jersey, the Republican Joe Kyrillos is less than ten points behind the Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez and the Democrat is below 50% of the vote. [DickMorris.com, 10/16/12]

“I Also Believe That Tom Smith Will Beat Bob Casey.”

[Kiss1027fm.com, 10/22/12]

“An Upset Is Looming In Pennsylvania.” From a column on Morris' website:

Republicans have eight potential takeaways, including six likely ones:

[...]

5. An upset is looming in Pennsylvania where Rasmussen has Republican Tom Smith one ahead of Democratic Senator Bob Casey. Private polls have him further ahead. [The Hill, 10/26/12]

Prediction: George Allen (R-VA) Will “Win” Over Tim Kaine

Actual Result: Kaine defeated Allen.

Allen “Could Win In A 10- To 15-Point Landslide (which is shaping up).” From a Morris column in The Hill (headlined, “Obama might pull out [of the presidential race]”):

Currently, there are strong Republican candidates in 12 seats now held by Democrats. All could win in a 10- to 15-point landslide (which is shaping up). They include: Virginia (George Allen), Florida (Adam Hasner), New Mexico (probably Rep. Steve Pearce), Montana (Rep. Denny Rehberg), North Dakota (Rep. Rick Berg), Nebraska (Jon Bruning), Missouri (Sarah Steelman would be the best), Michigan (Pete Hoekstra), Ohio (Josh Mandel would be best), Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson or one of the others), Pennsylvania (Tim Burns would be great) and Connecticut (Chris Shays -- better than Linda McMahon). [The Hill, 9/20/11]

Morris Lists Virginia As A Seat “I Think We'll Win.”

[Fox News, The O'Reilly Factor, 9/19/12]

"Significant Lead Over Kaine." Less than a week before the election, Morris tweeted:

[Twitter.com, 11/1/12]

“In Virginia [Romney Is] Going To Bring In George Allen With Him.”

[Fox News, Fox & Friends, 11/4/12]