Media Matters analysis showed that for the period between April 10 and May 14, 2024 — which includes the period between the releases of the March and April CPI reports — only 2 out of 66 print news articles (or 3%) covering inflation mentioned Trump's inflationary past policies and policy proposals for a second term, including tariffs, mass deportations, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, devaluation of the U.S. dollar, and increasing direct presidential control of the Fed.

The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal each published one article mentioning Trump's inflationary policy agenda, while the other major newspapers neglected to mention this crucial context in their inflation coverage. The oversight is particularly glaring at the Post, where opinion columnist Catherine Rampell published two columns during the survey period outlining the effects of Trump’s inflationary second term agenda, compared to just one mention from the paper’s print news division. Likewise the Journal published a scoop about a potentially inflationary Trump policy proposal to eliminate the Federal Reserve’s independence, which it did not mention in any subsequent Journal coverage about inflation during this survey period.

Our analysis showed that 5 out of 66 (8%) print news articles on inflation for the period between April 10 and May 14, 2024, included a quote from Trump attacking President Joe Biden's record on the economy and/or inflation, more than double the number of articles that mentioned Trump’s own inflationary policies.

Just half of print newspaper articles on inflation for the period between April 10 and May 14, 2024, included context addressing recent gains in wages, job creation, and/or economic growth, with 33 of 66 (50%) articles mentioning the overall strength of the economy. This is a higher percentage than the previous two study periods, but still less than the period between January 11 and February 13, during which 56% of articles mentioned positive economic indicators.

• Per reporting from The Washington Post, former chief economist for the Trump administration's Council of Economic Advisers Casey B. Mulligan “estimated in an interview that Trump’s 10 percent import tariff proposal would add an extra percentage point to inflation, or a quarter percent a year if spread out over four years.” [The Washington Post, 1/7/24]
• Conservative economist Doug Holtz-Eakin suggested that Trump’s trade and immigration policies might lead to a “wage-price spiral,” a condition in which prices and pay increases push one another upward and thus cancel out any seeming benefit for workers. [The Washington Post, 1/7/24]
• Conservative American Enterprise Institute economist Michael Strain also suggested that Trump's mass deportation policy “could spark a wage-price spiral, which would be inflationary.” Though Strain indicated that he is “not totally sure” whether Trump's policies would lead to generalized price increases, he said they “could lead to higher costs in certain sectors — particularly those that employ a lot of immigrants such as restaurants, hotels and fresh produce” and acknowledged the possibility of a more general wage-price spiral occurring as a result. [Politico, 3/7/24]
• Center for Economic and Policy Research senior economist Dean Baker: “Trump is promising massive tax increases in the form of tariffs, which will send inflation soaring if he carries through with them.” [Twitter/X, 3/2/24]
• Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm stated that Trump's plan of “jacking up tariffs and cutting off immigration are both inflationary." [Twitter/X, 2/29/24]
• Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, explained that Trump's mass deportation plan “would lead to very sudden spikes in prices of key goods like fresh produce, hotel rooms, and housing repairs.” [The Washington Post, 1/7/24]
• Economic Policy Institute chief economist Josh Bivens: “If a future Trump administration really did deport millions of workers, that would be inflationary.” [Politico, 3/7/24]
• The U.S. International Trade Commission found that the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese imports had the effect of “raising costs for American companies” and “increased prices of US products.” [Bloomberg, 3/16/23]
• Bloomberg Economics: New tariffs pledged by Trump, including a 60% tariff on all imports from China, would nearly double the projected inflation rate in 2025. Bloomberg reported that “the Bloomberg Economics model shows the proposal sending the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of prices, up to 3.7% by the end of next year, well above policymakers’ 2% target. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, expect 2.1% inflation in 2025.” [Bloomberg, 4/2/24]
• The Federal Reserve raised interest rates following Trump's 2017 tax cuts to counter their inflationary pressure. The Tax Policy Center explained that because the tax cuts enacted during the Trump administration were “enacted at a time when unemployment was low and output was near its potential level,” the Fed “held interest rates higher than they otherwise would have been to prevent an increase in inflation.” [Tax Policy Center, January 2024]
• National Foreign Trade Council President Jake Colvin: Trump advisers’ plan to devalue the U.S. dollar “could spark a number of unintended consequences including inflationary global currency and trade wars.” On April 15, Politico reported: “Economic advisers close to former President Donald Trump are actively debating ways to devalue the U.S. dollar if he’s elected to a second term — a dramatic move that could boost U.S. exports but also reignite inflation and threaten the dollar’s position as the world’s dominant currency.” [Politico, 4/15/24]
• Former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld: “Trump’s Plans for the Fed Would Revive 1970s-Style Inflation.” In an opinion piece for Project Syndicate, Obstfeld, who is currently a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, criticized Trump advisers’ plans to both devalue the U.S. dollar and grant a potential future President Trump “direct presidential control over the Fed’s interest-rate decisions and rulemaking” which he wrote “would be a potent inflationary cocktail.” Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell similarly warned that the proposal to “kneecap the Federal Reserve” should be seen as a “five-alarm fire for anyone who claims to care about inflation.” In her column, she pointed to an exhaustive IMF study which showed that central banks “with strong independence scores were more successful in keeping people’s inflation expectations in check, which helps keep inflation low.” [Project Syndicate, 5/8/24; The Washington Post, 5/2/24; International Monetary Fund, 3/21/24]

Media Matters searched print articles in the Factiva database from the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post — the top five U.S. newspapers by circulation — for any of the terms “Consumer Price Index,” “CPI,” “Bureau of Labor Statistics,” or “BLS” or any variations of any of the terms “inflation,” “shrinkflation,” “price,” “cost,” or “expense” within the headline or lead paragraphs from April 10, 2024, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index update, through May 14, 2024, a day prior to BLS releasing the most recent CPI update of the calendar year.

We included articles, which we defined as instances when inflation was mentioned in the headline or lead paragraphs in the news or business sections of each paper. We did not include editorial, op-eds, or letters to the editor.

We then reviewed the identified articles for whether they mentioned that some of Trump's policies as president or economic proposals from him or his advisers, such as higher tariffs, mass deportations, more tax cuts for the rich, devaluing the U.S. dollar, and exerting more direct control of the Federal Reserve would make inflation worse; quoted Trump criticizing Biden on inflation, exaggerating inflation, or lying about overall economic conditions; or mentioned any current positive economic indicators, such as economic growth, job creation, wage growth, and the low unemployment rate.