NYP, WSJ mock White House estimates on effectiveness of stimulus

NY Post article: Biden “full of 'bull' on economy.” A July 15 New York Post article featured the headline, “Joe full of 'bull' on economy,” and stated that “Vice President Joe Biden yesterday claimed the $862 billion stimulus had created or saved as many as 3.6 million jobs.” It further reported: “The new White House figures, including estimates that the plan boosted gross domestic product by between 2.7 and 3.2 percent, did not impress Republicans, who have questioned the validity of the job-creation numbers.”

NY Post editorial: “Jobs snow-job.” A July 15 Post editorial titled, “Jobs snow-job,” stated: “Here we go again: Fantasy Time in Obama Job-Creation Land. The White House yesterday sent Vice President Joe Biden and Council of Economic Advisers head Christina Romer to tout the sudden, wonderful, magical appearance of some 3.5 million jobs under President Obama through the end of this year.” The Post continued: “Indeed, they say between 2.5 million and 3.6 million positions already have been 'created or saved' -- all as a result of Team Obama's trillion-dollar stimulus.” The Post also stated that the “Obama-Biden job figures” are not “reality-based.”

WSJ on White House stimulus figures: “Seriously?” In a July 15 editorial titled, “Three Million Imaginary Jobs,” The Wall Street Journal wrote: “The White House says the stimulus worked beyond even its hopes. Seriously.” The Journal added:

It may be that the last people in America who believe that the $862 billion economic stimulus of February 2009 created millions of net new jobs are Vice President Joe Biden and the staff economists in the White House. Yesterday, President Obama's chief economist announced that the plan had “created or saved” between 2.5 million and 3.6 million jobs and raised GDP by 2.7% to 3.2% through June 30. Don't you feel better already?

But White House's GDP figures are similar to those of independent estimates

CEA: Recovery Act "has raised the level of GDP as of the second quarter of 2010, relative to what it otherwise would have been, by between 2.7 and 3.2 percent." The White House's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report on July 14 finding that the Recovery Act “has raised the level of GDP as of the second quarter of 2010, relative to what it otherwise would have been, by between 2.7 and 3.2 percent.” CEA noted that "[t]hese estimates are very similar to those of a wide range of other analysts, including the Congressional Budget Office." CEA also included a chart of private and independent analysts' estimates of the Recovery Act's impact on GDP, which shows estimates similar to that of CEA's:

Analysts agree stimulus significantly raised employment over what would have happened otherwise

CEA: Recovery Act “has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million.” The CEA report estimated that as of the second quarter of 2010, the Recovery Act, “has raised employment relative to what it otherwise would have been by between 2.5 and 3.6 million.” CEA also included a chart of private and independent analysts' estimates of the Recovery Act's impact on employment:

CBO estimates job impact of between 1.4 and 3.4 million. According to the CEA chart, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.4 to 3.4 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

IHS/Global Insight estimates job impact of 2.1 million. According to the CEA chart, IHS/Global Insight estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.1 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

Moody's Economy.com estimates job impact of 2.2 million. The CEA chart shows that Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 2.2 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

Macroeconomic Advisers estimates job impact of 1.8 million. The CEA chart noted that Macroeconomic Advisers estimates that the Recovery Act raised employment by 1.8 million as of the second quarter of 2010.

AP: "[G]rowing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs." A July 14 Associated Press article about the White House's stimulus figures stated that while “exactly how many jobs” the Recovery Act has created “is a matter of dispute,” “a growing body of independent economic analysis suggests the law has boosted jobs and kept people off the unemployment line.”